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                    Thaksin's 
                      Wars
                      
                      The Thai Prime Ministers battles against drugs, crime 
                      and beyond
                      
                   
                  
                  Whatever 
                    accusations have been laid upon Thai Prime Minister Thaksin 
                    Shinawatra by his detractors  that he has dictatorial 
                    leanings, that he is prone to nationalistic rhetoric, that 
                    he continues to pander to his own business interests  
                    even his staunchest critics are forced to admit he is a man 
                    of results. Under his tenure the Thai economy grew over 5 
                    percent last year, by far its best performance since the 1997 
                    economic crisis, and despite the damage wrought to the crucial 
                    tourism industry by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) 
                    and renewed terrorism fears, it is poised to exceed 6 percent 
                    growth in 2003. 
                    
                    More importantly, in the eyes of a jaded electorate, he has 
                    fulfilled the main pledges he made in the run up to his election 
                    in 2001: a 30 baht (US$0.70) per hospital visit medical scheme, 
                    a 1 million baht (US$23,000) fund for each of the countrys 
                    villages and a moratorium on farmers loan repayments 
                    have all been instituted during his time in office. The government 
                    is now in the midst of an effort to supply low-cost computers 
                    to a wide segment of the population and also has plans to 
                    build state-subsidized housing for Bangkoks low-income 
                    earners.
                    
                    All carefully orchestrated PR moves, say the Prime Ministers 
                    critics. But for a man said to be almost morbidly concerned 
                    with his image, Thaksin has proved surprisingly willing to 
                    court controversy in other areas; most notably when it comes 
                    to human rights issues. His war on drugs, a February 
                    to April crackdown designed to purge the country of yaba 
                    (methamphetamine) users, resulted in 2,200 deaths. While the 
                    government insists most of these deaths resulted from frightened 
                    drug dealers turning on each other, human rights monitors 
                    insist the police were responsible for the vast majority of 
                    the killings. The Bangkok-based Asian Forum for Human Rights 
                    and Development said the muted atmosphere surrounding the 
                    fatalities showed the government was bypassing human 
                    rights and the rule of law. 
                    
                    Thaksin and leading members of his Thai Rak Thai party have 
                    insisted tough measures were needed to deal with what was 
                    becoming an epidemic. One in 17 Thais over 15 is addicted 
                    to methamphetamine, according to some estimates, and the United 
                    Nations ranks Thailand as the largest consumer of the drug 
                    in the world. In the eyes of the government, the ends of the 
                    drug war  nearly 20,000 dealers arrested, 280,000 addicts 
                    in custody or rehabilitation programs, and a tripling in the 
                    street price of yaba, according to the countrys Narcotics 
                    Control Board  more than justify the means.
                    
                    It would seem the public agrees. Recent polls show support 
                    for Thaksin and the ruling party at 54 percent, far higher 
                    than the 14 percent registered by the countrys opposition, 
                    the Democrats. Most political analysts now see the current 
                    government not only completing its four-year term in office 
                     which would make it the first of any government in 
                    Thailand to do so  but winning another term when general 
                    elections are held in two years time. 
                    
                    Thaksin himself is obviously confident enough to set the stage 
                    for a showdown with another, and far more insidious, problem 
                    than drugs: corruption. The government is in the final stages 
                    of compiling a list of over 2,700 criminal figures, army and 
                    police officers, contractors and opinion leaders who will 
                    be targeted in the governments forthcoming war 
                    on dark influence. Thaksin claims this will strike at 
                    the very heart of the nepotism and shady business dealings 
                    that have plagued Thailand for so long. While the aim is to 
                    give the figures on the list a chance to rehabilitate, rather 
                    than to detain or eliminate them, the Prime Minister is once 
                    again promising results as concrete as those that emerged 
                    from the battle against drugs. 
                    
                    Yet this time around, even the dynamic Thaksin may have overstepped 
                    his bounds. Government spokesman Sita Divari told reporters 
                    on July 1 that provincial governors and police officers responsible 
                    for compiling the list had not proven fully cooperative. This 
                    is unsurprising as few are inclined to implicate their own 
                    friends or associates. The criteria used in drawing up the 
                    list has also been called into question. It has yet to be 
                    fully disclosed and inside sources claim it includes no one 
                    within the current government, and the head of the campaign, 
                    General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, has himself been implicated 
                    in a number of scandals.
                    
                    While foreign investors and firms operating in Thailand would 
                    no doubt welcome any efforts to stamp out corruption in the 
                    country, the vast majority of their most common complaints 
                     bureaucratic inefficiency, ambiguous legislation and 
                    a lack of coordination among government departments dealing 
                    with large-scale business ventures  have less to do 
                    with underground crime lords than the realm of officialdom 
                    itself. As Thaksins current war looks set to leave the 
                    mechanisms of government unscathed, it is unlikely to make 
                    Thailand a significantly more attractive place to do business.
                    
                    Indeed, while he has little trouble gaining the approval of 
                    his own people, Thaksin has proven far less adept at winning 
                    international hearts and minds. His decision to turn down 
                    a visit by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human 
                    Rights at the height of the drug campaign and a current dispute 
                    with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees  
                    Thaksin claims the agency has violated Thailands sovereignty 
                    by granting refugee status to Burmese exiles in Thailand without 
                    consulting the Thai government  have once again put 
                    his apparent lack of concern for human rights issues in the 
                    spotlight.
                    
                    Few would deny that the Prime Ministers first duty is 
                    to his people. But he would do well to remember that much 
                    of Thailands prosperity in recent years has been a direct 
                    result of the countrys status as one of Asias 
                    most stable democracies and a haven of political and economic 
                    freedom in a troubled region. In pitting his government against 
                    multilateral agencies such as the UN, Thaksin may find himself 
                    mired in the first war he cannot win.